Our Top AI Stock Portfolio Is Up 30% in Under 90 Days. Here’s What’s Next

April 14, 10:33 am

Back in January, we published a list of top AI stocks based on alternative data signals: hiring trends, employee sentiment, web traffic momentum, and structural demand indicators that rarely make headlines until they're already priced in. We also made it concrete by building a $10,000 paper portfolio across the eight picks. About 90 days later, it's time to check the tape.

The short version: the portfolio has returned an average of 30.2% since January 24. The S&P 500, over the same period, is down slightly, weighed down by inflation concerns, energy price shocks, and broad IT sector pressure. That spread matters. In a year where the market has broadly struggled, a concentrated bet on AI infrastructure has outperformed by a wide margin, and the stocks with the strongest alternative data footprint at publication have been the ones driving the gains.

Below is the full breakdown, with current prices and 3-month return data pulled directly from AltIndex.

Portfolio Returns: January 24 to April 14, 2026

Company		Price	AI Score
	Nebius NBIS — $164.56	$164.56 from $94.50	+74.1%
	Vertiv VRT — $309.29	$309.29 from $182.49	+69.5%
	Marvell Technology MRVL — $134.30	$134.30 from $80.23	+67.4%
	Taiwan Semiconductor TSM — $370.60	$370.60 from $333.94	+11.0%
	Arista Networks ANET — $148.28	$148.28 from $136.34	+8.8%
	Amazon AMZN — $250.22	$250.22 from $238.99	+4.7%
	Constellation Energy CEG — $295.81	$295.81 from $289.62	+2.1%
	NVIDIA NVDA — $196.51	$196.51 from $187.67	+4.7%
Portfolio Average			+30.2%

Prices as of April 14, 2026. Returns calculated from the January 24, 2026 publication date. S&P 500 return over the same period: approximately -1%.

What the Returns Tell Us

The pattern in this portfolio is not random. The three stocks with the highest AI scores in January — Nebius, Marvell, and Vertiv — are also the three that delivered the largest gains, each up more than 67%. That's a ver strong argument for tracking hiring signals, employee sentiment, and web traffic - in a hot sector - before they show up in earnings reports.

Nebius gained 74.1% over the period, driven by a string of developments that were already visible in the alternative data at publication time. The company's LinkedIn headcount had grown 58% in the prior year. That kind of aggressive hiring, concentrated in infrastructure and compute capacity roles, was pointing at a business building ahead of demand. Since January, that demand arrived publicly: a $27 billion infrastructure deal with Meta Platforms, a $2 billion investment from NVIDIA, and nine new data center sites announced across the U.S. and Europe. The headcount signal preceded all of it.

Vertiv gained 69.5% and has been one of the clearest vindications of the job-posting data approach. In January, we flagged a 31% increase in Vertiv job postings over the prior year, concentrated in liquid cooling and thermal management roles. That was pointing at a manufacturing capacity expansion before it was reported. Q4 revenue came in at $2.88 billion, up 22.7% year over year. Orders were up 252% year over year. The company joined the S&P 500 in March and has continued to expand its U.S. manufacturing footprint. Sentiment on AltIndex currently sits at 88, among the strongest readings in the portfolio.

Marvell gained 67.4%. The job posting data we cited in January — specifically roles around optical interconnects and silicon photonics architecture — pointed at an active product cycle before it became visible to the market. NVIDIA made a $2 billion equity investment in Marvell in late March as part of the NVLink Fusion partnership, which was a direct institutional validation of the positioning we outlined. Business outlook on AltIndex currently reads 87 out of 100, with employee rating at 86 and 449 active job postings, suggesting continued execution.

Taiwan Semiconductor, Arista, Amazon, Constellation Energy, and NVIDIA all delivered positive returns, ranging from 2.1% to 11.0%. That's meaningful in a year where the S&P 500 is flat and the Information Technology sector is down roughly 6%. These are the more stable, structural names in the portfolio: less exposed to single catalyst events, more tied to sustained AI buildout over time. They've played that role correctly.

The two softest performers, Constellation Energy (+2.1%) and NVIDIA (+3.8%), both faced specific headwinds unrelated to the core thesis. CEG was pressured by weaker-than-expected 2026 earnings guidance and delays to the Three Mile Island reconnection timeline. NVDA faced export control concerns and IT sector selling pressure. Neither of those dynamics changes the structural case for either company.

Does the Portfolio Still Have Upside?

The alternative data still supports the case for most of these names. Here's what the signals look like today, stock by stock.

Nebius (NBIS): The 3-month return on AltIndex shows 61.4%. Employee business outlook reads 91 out of 100, which is an all-time high for the company and reflects internal confidence at a moment when Nebius is scaling faster than almost any other public AI infrastructure company. Web traffic is running at 573,000 monthly visits, up substantially from earlier in the year. Reddit mentions spiked 275% in a single day last week, pointing to growing retail awareness of the name. Analyst consensus sits at a strong buy with a Goldman Sachs target of $205, roughly 24% above current levels.

Marvell Technology (MRVL): 449 active job postings and business outlook at 87 are both above-average signals for a semiconductor company at this stage of a cycle. The NVIDIA partnership through NVLink Fusion is not a one-time event — it embeds Marvell deeper into the AI interconnect stack for the foreseeable future. Analyst rating is 93% buy. The average price target implies roughly 28% additional upside from current levels. Google is reportedly in talks with Marvell about custom TPU silicon, which would add a second hyperscaler relationship to the existing AWS Trainium engagement.

Vertiv (VRT): Sentiment on stock forums reads 88, very bullish. The company has 1,814 active job postings and 17,430 employees (according to LinkedIn. These numbers are still increasing and point to a business that remains in active expansion mode. Vertiv acquired BMarko Structures recently to expand capacity for manufactured and converged infrastructure solutions. The company reports Q1 2026 earnings on April 22, which will be an early read on whether the 252% order growth from Q4 continues. Analyst rating is 100% buy across 19 analysts tracked.

Constellation Energy (CEG): This is the most complicated story in the portfolio right now. Job postings have declined over the past several weeks, down roughly 22% in late March, and the 3-month return for the stock is 10.3%, reflecting a period where CEG recovered from a sharp March selloff but remains below its January levels. Business outlook is 82 and employee rating is 80, both solid but not exceptional. The structural case for nuclear power as the preferred energy source for AI data centers has not changed. CEG signed a 380-megawatt deal with CyrusOne in March adjacent to its Freestone Energy Center. The average analyst target of $383 implies roughly 30% upside from current levels, and Barclays has a buy rating with a $360 target. The question is whether the Three Mile Island delay resolves on the current timeline.

NVIDIA (NVDA): NVIDIA is the portfolio's most debated name right now. The stock has traded sideways in a year where it might reasonably have been expected to continue its 2025 run. Export controls, custom silicon competition from hyperscalers, and IT sector selling pressure have all weighed on sentiment. But the underlying demand signals remain intact. Jensen Huang cited $1 trillion in Blackwell and Vera Rubin orders through 2027 at GTC in March. The inference transition — from training-heavy to always-on inference across deployed AI products — continues to compound compute demand. The current AltIndex AI Score for NVDA sits at 64, unchanged from January, reflecting steady underlying metrics rather than a deteriorating signal.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Arista Networks (ANET), Amazon (AMZN): These three remain consensus holdings with clean fundamentals and upcoming earnings catalysts. TSM benefits from every advanced chip shipped, regardless of which designer wins market share. Arista guided to 25% revenue growth in 2026 with $3.25 billion specifically attributed to AI centers. Amazon reports earnings April 23, where AWS commentary will be closely watched. Analyst consensus across all three is strong buy, with average price targets implying 17–30% upside.

The Broader Context

A 30% gain in less than 90 days, while the broader market stayed flat to negative, shows why alternative data matters. Back in January, the signals were already there: hiring growth, improving sentiment, stronger web traffic, and clear signs of business momentum before the market fully caught on.

The risks are still real. Valuations are higher, execution matters, and macro uncertainty has not gone away. But the core takeaway is simple: the companies showing the strongest momentum in the data were the ones that delivered the best returns.

That is the edge AltIndex is built to provide. If you want to spot these signals earlier and track the stocks gaining real momentum before Wall Street catches up, sign up for AltIndex.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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