The “Bet Against America” Trade: Where Investors Are Moving as the Dollar Weakens

February 25, 5:33 pm

For more than a decade, global capital flowed consistently into U.S. equities and dollar-denominated assets. That trend produced one of the strongest bull markets in history and reinforced the dollar’s role as the world’s dominant reserve currency.

The U.S. dollar index fell roughly 9–10% in 2025, one of its worst annual performances since 2017. Many forecasts now expect continued volatility and potential further weakness in 2026. Analysts also note that the dollar’s traditional safe-haven status has weakened somewhat due to trade policy uncertainty and pressure on the Federal Reserve.

When the dollar declines and inflation expectations remain elevated, capital historically rotates toward real assets, commodities, and global markets. Recent price action across metals, energy, and mining equities reflects that rotation.

What “Betting Against America” Actually Means

In markets, this positioning refers to macro exposure that tends to benefit from dollar weakness, inflation protection, and global diversification. It typically includes assets that have historically done well when the dollar declines and commodity prices rise:

• Precious metals (gold, silver)
• Mining companies (gold, silver, copper, diversified miners)
• Energy producers (oil majors)
• Emerging market equities (often via ETFs)

Best Assets for a “Weak America” Thesis

Gold: Bullion + Gold Mining Stocks

Company	Asset Class	Price & 3m Chg	AI Score	Note
Newmont NEM	Gold miner	$124.85 37.9%	69	Large-scale producer with earnings sensitivity to gold prices.
Barrick Mining B	Gold + copper	$49.8 22.1%	50	Gold leverage plus copper exposure; tends to benefit in metals up-cycles.
Franco-Nevada FNV	Gold royalties	$275.7 33.2%	57	Royalty model with exposure to production and metal prices.
SPDR Gold Shares GLD	Gold ETF	$473.4 23.6%	51	Direct exposure to the gold price (no operating company risk).
iShares Gold Trust IAU	Gold ETF	$96.9 23.6%	51	Lower-cost bullion exposure for gold allocation sizing.

Silver: Precious + Industrial Metal

Company	Asset Class	Price & 3m Chg	AI Score	Note
First Majestic Silver AG	Silver miner	$29.4 117%	63	Silver-focused producer with higher volatility vs diversified miners.
Wheaton Precious Metals WPM	Streaming/royalties	$157.4 47.5%	54	Diversified precious metals exposure through streaming contracts.
iShares Silver Trust SLV	Silver ETF	$80 65.4%	49	Direct exposure to silver price movements.

Mining: Copper + Diversified Producers

Company	Asset Class	Price & 3m Chg	AI Score	Note
Freeport-McMoRan FCX	Copper miner	$68.8 63.7%	72	Copper exposure tied to infrastructure and global industrial demand.
Rio Tinto RIO	Diversified miner	$100.7 39.6%	50	Industrial metals exposure; often benefits from global commodity cycles.
BHP Group BHP	Diversified miner	$81.6 48.8%	63	Broad commodity basket exposure; leveraged to metals demand and pricing.

Energy: Oil Majors

Company	Asset Class	Price & 3m Chg	AI Score	Note
Exxon Mobil XOM	Oil major	$149 30.8%	46	Integrated producer; benefits from strong energy pricing and cash flow cycles.
Chevron CVX	Oil major	$184.2 23.2%	56	Large global footprint with dividend focus; typically defensive in inflation regimes.
Shell SHEL	Oil & LNG	$82.2 12.1%	57	International energy exposure; LNG sensitivity can add macro diversification.
Energy Select Sector SPDR XLE	Energy ETF	$54.8 19.1%	55	Broad U.S. energy exposure via a single ticker.

Emerging Markets: ETFs for Global Diversification

A weaker U.S. dollar has historically been supportive for emerging markets because it can ease dollar-denominated debt pressure and improve capital flows into non-U.S. assets. For investors who want diversified exposure without picking individual countries, ETFs are the simplest implementation.

Below are several widely used emerging-market ETFs.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is one of the broadest “one-ticket” ways to own emerging markets. It’s trading around at $63.3 and is up about +17.6% over the last 3 months.

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) is a similar broad emerging-markets basket with a different index methodology and typically a low expense ratio. It’s trading at $59 and is up about +9.6% over the last 3 months.

iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) provides China equity exposure via a U.S.-listed ETF wrapper. It’s trading at $60.6 and is down about -2.5% over the last 3 months.

iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) is a country ETF that is often treated as a commodity-linked emerging market exposure. It’s trading at $39.59 and is up about +21.5% over the last 3 months.

Bottom line

The U.S. dollar index fell roughly 9–10% in 2025, one of its weakest annual performances since 2017, and many forecasts expect continued volatility and potential further weakness in 2026. At the same time, gold has reached record levels, commodity prices have strengthened, and capital has rotated into mining stocks, energy producers, and select emerging market ETFs.

This positioning reflects a clear macro allocation shift: exposure to precious metals, diversified miners, oil majors, and emerging markets has increased as investors seek assets that historically perform well during periods of dollar softness and inflation persistence.

For investors implementing this type of strategy, a diversified basket across metals, energy, and global equities can reduce single-asset risk. Many also keep a small allocation (~10%) to cash or short-term bonds to manage volatility and maintain flexibility if macro conditions change.

At AltIndex, these themes can be tracked systematically. Our AI Score combines alternative data, financial strength, and momentum indicators to identify companies and ETFs gaining underlying traction before it becomes widely reflected in market prices. As shown in the stocks and ETFs above, higher AI Scores often align with stronger price performance.
Instead of relying solely on macro narratives, investors can use the AI Score to monitor which gold miners, energy companies, and emerging market ETFs are showing improving fundamentals, rising demand, and strengthening market sentiment in real time.

Macro trends provide the broader investment environment, but data helps identify which assets are actually leading within that environment.

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