Why Space Stocks Crashed in 2026, and What the Growth Signals Say Happens Next

By AltIndex Research · 11 min read · August 2, 11:33 am

Every major space stock topped out in the same week at the end of May. Since then Intuitive Machines is down 70%, Redwire 64%, Rocket Lab 56%, and AST SpaceMobile 52%. Their growth signals did not follow. Rocket Lab posted a record 304 open roles last week, SpaceX is at 1,580 and rising, and Redwire is hiring at more than double its 2025 pace. We ranked six space stocks on the data that isn't derived from the share price.

SpaceX printed its first week on the public market at $192.50. It trades at $111.90 today, down 42%. In the same stretch, SpaceX went from posting 1,293 open roles a week to 1,580, up 45% in a month and near its record. Retail interest peaked in mid-June and has fallen sharply since.

SpaceX is not the exception here. Across the whole sector, share prices are falling while hiring speeds up. That split is the most useful thing to look at right now, because it is the one part of the picture a price chart cannot show you.

They All Peaked in the Same Week

Redwire hit $23.31 in the week of May 25. Rocket Lab hit $143.95. AST SpaceMobile hit $118.35. Intuitive Machines hit $41.52. Every one of them, the same week. SpaceX only began trading in June, so it is not in the chart below, but it has followed the same path since.

AltIndex price data · percentage change from the first week of January 2026

What followed was not a rotation out of one name into another. It was the whole sector repricing together, which usually means the move was about sentiment and positioning rather than anything company-specific. Correlated tops and correlated drawdowns are a flow event, and flow events say nothing about which businesses are actually working.

The Hiring Never Turned

Job postings are the fastest read on whether a company is still committing money. A posted role is budget that has already been approved, and it updates daily instead of quarterly.

AltIndex job postings data · weekly average, July 2025 to August 2026

Rocket Lab's line is the one to look at. Its weekly job postings have climbed in nearly every week since mid-April and hit 303.6 last week, an all-time high, up 81% year over year. The stock fell 56% over the back half of that same stretch. Redwire is at 94 a week against 43 a year ago. AST SpaceMobile went from 25 a week last August to 315 now.

Only Intuitive Machines rolled over meaningfully, falling from a 130-a-week peak in February to 56 in July, though it has rebounded 51% in the last month to 73.7.

The Ranking

We score every company on an AI Score that blends financial health, hiring, headcount, web traffic, employee sentiment, and social interest. Above 60 is a buy signal, 40 to 59 is hold, below 40 is sell. Here is the space cohort as it stands, and our best space stocks page carries the same ranking updated daily.

Redwire: The Widest Gap in the Sector

Redwire is the only name in the group carrying a buy signal, and it got there while losing 64% from its May high.

Every non-price signal we track on Redwire is pointing up. Job postings run at 94 a week against 43 a year ago. LinkedIn headcount went from 668 at the start of 2026 to 1,230, up 84%. Web traffic is at 107,525 weekly visits, up 72%. Employee business outlook has climbed from 40% in early 2025 to 52% and has not declined in a single reading since July 2025.

The fundamentals are the problem, and they are a real one. Redwire's fundamental component scores 31 out of 100. It has missed EPS estimates in seven of the last eight reported quarters and has not posted positive EBITDA in any of them. There is also a supply overhang worth knowing about: between April 21 and June 11, AE Industrial Partners Fund II sold 38.7 million shares across five insider transactions at prices from $10.57 to $21.48. A sponsor exiting that size of position explains a meaningful chunk of the drawdown, and no hiring number offsets it.

Redwire reports on August 5, the first clean test of whether all that headcount converts to revenue. Our Redwire stock forecast 2030 page tracks the score against the price daily.

SpaceX: Best Operating Data, Hardest Valuation

SpaceX scores 59, and on the employment signals alone it would rank first in this group. Its employee business outlook is 80%, the highest of any space company we track, meaning four in five employees report a positive view of the business over the next six months. Headcount has gone from 18,407 in April to 20,133, and job postings are at 1,580 a week, up 45% in a month.

What holds the score down is the price you pay for all of it. Its fundamental component scores 25, the lowest in the group. SpaceX turned over $4.69 billion in revenue last quarter against a $1.48 trillion market cap, which is roughly 79 times annualized sales, and it lost $4.28 billion on that revenue. Growth is not making up the difference either: quarterly revenue rose 15% year over year. It reports for the first time as a public company on August 4. Short interest is already the highest in the sector at a 71.76 short ratio, and Representative William Timmons bought $75,000 of the stock on June 15, one of the few congressional purchases in space this year.

Retail attention has cooled fast. Reddit mentions peaked at 824 a week in mid-June and sit at 310 now, down 62% from the high, while web traffic holds at 3.4 million weekly visits. The attention that drove the first weeks of trading has drained out; the operating data has not. Our SpaceX stock forecast 2030 page tracks the score against the price daily.

Rocket Lab: The Lower-Risk Version of the Same Trade

Rocket Lab scores 57, a hold, held down by the same profitability gap that affects everyone in this sector. On operating momentum it is the strongest name in the group.

Its job postings are at an all-time high and have risen in nearly every week since mid-April. Headcount is 2,363, up 27% year over year, which on a base that size is roughly 500 people added in twelve months. Employee business outlook sits at 74% and has risen 8.8% year over year, the best internal sentiment in the cohort by a wide margin. We logged three separate expansion events in July alone, and Space Force named vendors for a $981 million program on August 1.

Peter Beck sold roughly 637,000 shares on July 8 at prices between $81 and $86, which in hindsight was near the local high. Founder selling at scale is worth registering even when it is scheduled. Full history is on the RKLB stock forecast 2030 page. Rocket Lab reports August 10.

AST SpaceMobile: The Signals Disagree With Each Other

AST scores 59 and is the most interesting split in the group. Its hiring expansion is the largest we track anywhere in space: 25 postings a week last August, 315 now, a 1,168% increase, with headcount up 76% to 1,128.

The people inside the company do not share the enthusiasm. Employee business outlook is 36%, down 21.7% year over year and the lowest of any name here. Fewer than two in five AST employees report a positive view of the business over the next six months, at a company that has nearly doubled its headcount. That combination usually signals integration strain rather than confidence.

Hiring velocity has also turned, down 13.4% over the last month from a peak of 359 postings a week in early July. Insiders have been selling into strength, including Rakuten disposing of 1.35 million shares in April at $86.22, well above today's $57.38. AST reports August 10, and the ASTS stock forecast 2030 page carries the signal history.

Intuitive Machines and the One We'd Avoid

Intuitive Machines scores 55. It has the sharpest recent hiring rebound in the sector, up 51% in the last month, and headcount is up 75% year over year to 675. Against that, postings are still well below their February peak of 130 a week, employee outlook has slipped from 95% a year ago to 72%, and founder Kamal Ghaffarian sold roughly 253,000 shares between June 29 and July 13 at $15.64 to $20.80. The stock is at $12.33 and reports August 13. Details on the LUNR stock prediction 2030 page.

Sidus Space scores 54 and its job postings are up 200% year over year, but headcount tells a different story: 99 employees today against 101 a year ago. It is posting roles and not filling them. It is a $171 million company whose employee rating sits at 52, and a shareholder investigation was announced on July 22. That is a legal overhang the alternative data cannot see around, and it is enough to keep us off the name regardless of the hiring trend. The SIDU stock prediction 2030 page has the score history if you want to track it.

The Bottom Line

A 40% to 70% sector-wide drawdown that happened to every name in the same eight weeks is a flow event. The question is which companies kept spending through it, and on that measure Rocket Lab and Redwire separate from the pack.

Rocket Lab is the one we would look at first. Record job postings rising almost every week since April, 74% employee business outlook and improving, 2,363 people on staff, and a fresh Space Force program win. It is the only name here combining accelerating hiring with real scale and a public track record.

SpaceX has the better internal numbers, an 80% employee outlook and 20,133 staff growing 9% in a quarter, but you are paying 79 times sales for a business losing money, and it reports as a public company for the first time on August 4. Redwire is the high-beta option: hiring at more than double last year's pace with headcount up 84%, on a loss-making base, with a sponsor still working through a 38.7 million share exit. Its August 5 print settles a lot of it.

AST SpaceMobile we would wait on. The hiring number is spectacular and the internal sentiment is the worst in the group, and when those two disagree the employee data has usually been the one worth listening to. Sidus Space we would leave alone. Job postings up 200% against a headcount that has actually shrunk is not growth, and the July shareholder investigation is an overhang the alternative data cannot see around.

The full ranking, including the names that did not make this article, sits on our best space stocks page and updates daily.

Rocket Lab hit record hiring while the stock fell 56% Want to see the next divergence while it's still open? AltIndex tracks job postings, LinkedIn headcount, web traffic, employee business outlook, insider trades, and congressional trades for thousands of stocks, and scores them daily. Get the signals that aren't derived from the price. Get Started for Free →

Sources: AltIndex job postings data, AltIndex LinkedIn employee data, AltIndex web traffic data, AltIndex employee business outlook data, AltIndex AI Score history, company filings and press releases. Signal and price data as of August 2, 2026. Stock prices are historical and for informational purposes only. This article does not constitute investment advice.

Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. AltIndex aggregates publicly available alternative data signals. Past signal performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence before making investment decisions.