5 Stocks to Watch as US-Iran Conflict Escalates
February 28, 10:33 am
The "Shadow War" between the US and Iran has officially ended, replaced by a massive direct military engagement. In our article Stocks and Assets to Watch as Iran Tensions Grow on January 14, we noted that investors were already rotating into "risk-off" assets, a trend that has accelerated significantly since. Defense leaders like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) have surged approximately 14.9% and 10.9% respectively, while energy majors ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) have seen gains exceeding 11%.
As "Operation Epic Fury" now targets Iranian infrastructure, we once again analyze the stocks most likely to move when the opening bell rings on Monday. The geopolitical landscape shifted violently this weekend. Following months of escalating tensions, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury - a large-scale aerial and missile campaign aimed at Iran’s nuclear facilities and leadership command centers.
With reports of over 500 targets struck and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) allegedly closing the Strait of Hormuz, global markets are bracing for a "Monday Morning Shock." While Bitcoin has already slid 6% and Gold has touched a historic $5,200 per ounce, equity investors are shifting focus toward sectors that historically thrive - or provide a hedge - during large-scale kinetic conflicts. Based on alternative data trends and current geopolitical positioning, here are the five stocks to watch as this conflict unfolds.
1. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT)
Lockheed Martin has been a top performer in 2026, largely due to the Trump administration’s aggressive funding of the "Golden Dome" missile defense initiative. However, Operation Epic Fury moves Lockheed from a "readiness" play to an "active consumption" play. Our AI score for LMT jumped early February (from 55 to 69), largely due to a jump in sentiment on social media forums and an increase in job postings (a proxy for increased demand).
What to Watch: Watch for the depletion and replenishment rates of precision-guided munitions and the deployment frequency of the F-35 Lightning II. With a record backlog of $194 billion reported in Q4 2025, investors should monitor for any "emergency supplemental" defense bills from Congress that would fast-track PAC-3 (Patriot) and THAAD missile production.
2. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM)
Energy is the most immediate "transmission belt" between Middle Eastern war and the U.S. economy. With the IRGC reportedly blocking the Strait of Hormuz - the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint - Brent crude is already pushing toward the $100 mark in futures trading. XOM is already up massively in the last 3 months as the stock is up 32.5%. As the US administration has supported higher oil demand, the sentiment for the stock has also jumped. The bullish sentiment for the stock is up by over 30% in just the last month.
What to Watch: Watch the daily status of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. Navy’s "freedom of navigation" operations. Any signs of a prolonged blockage will likely decouple XOM from the broader market's volatility, as its massive upstream portfolio in the Permian and Guyana becomes a critical non-Middle Eastern supply source.
3. CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD)
Military analysts warn that Iran’s most effective response to U.S. air superiority will not be in the sky, but in the digital realm. Iran has spent a decade refining its cyber-warfare capabilities, specifically targeting U.S. financial institutions, power grids, and water treatment facilities. The stock has taken a strong beating in the last 3 months, and it's down nearly 27% due to the uncertainties around the "AI trade". That said, there are leading indicators pointing to growth for CrowdStrike. One of those signals is the number of people on LinkedIn stating that they work for Crowdstrike - the number of employees (according to LinkedIn data) is up by over 11% in the last year.
What to Watch: Watch for reports of "state-sponsored" digital intrusions targeting U.S. utilities. CrowdStrike’s Falcon platform is the industry standard for stopping these breaches. If a major domestic cyber event occurs, watch for a sharp decoupling of CRWD from other high-growth tech stocks as it transitions into a "national security utility."
4. RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX)
While Lockheed provides the planes, RTX provides the "shield." Their Patriot missile systems are currently the most active assets in the Middle East, intercepting Iranian "True Promise 4" missile waves over Israel and U.S. bases. Alternative data such as social media analysis, shows increased interest (and a bullish sentiment) for the company and its stock on social media platforms such as Reddit, X, and Instagram.
What to Watch: Watch for new international orders for the Patriot and NASAMS defense systems. As regional allies like the UAE and Bahrain face drone swarms, RTX’s "combat-proven" status is its strongest selling point. Also, keep an eye on progress with their DARPA XENA contract, which could signal the next generation of long-range interceptors.
5. Alamos Gold (NYSE: AGI)
When the sky falls, investors buy gold. Alamos Gold has already been on a tear, hitting an all-time high of $54.19 yesterday. As geopolitical risk reaches a boiling point, AGI is positioned as a high-leverage way to play the soaring gold price. The stock does currently have an AI score of 77, a buy signal, due to multiple factors including strong revenue growth, a jump in business outlook amongst its employees and a growing brand interest reflected in the increase in followers on X and Youtube.
What to Watch: Watch the $5,200 per ounce gold level. If gold sustains its weekend gains, AGI - which operates in the stable jurisdictions of Canada and Mexico - is likely to see a "liquidity rush." Specifically, watch for production updates from the Magino Mine, as high-grade output becomes increasingly valuable in a high-inflation, high-conflict environment.
Bottom Line
The launch of Operation Epic Fury has triggered a classic "Risk-Off" rotation. Investors should expect a volatile opening on Monday characterized by a flight to safety and a surge in defense spending.
As the situation unfolds, President Trump's real-time communication on Truth Social has become the market's primary steering wheel. To stay ahead of the volatility, subscribe to our Donald Trump Alerts. We analyze the President’s posts and their potential effects on the stock market in real-time, notifying members the moment a market-moving announcement is made.
Disclaimer: Market reactions to geopolitical events can be unpredictable. This analysis reflects current alternative data trends and does not constitute investment advice.
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