Tesla Deliveries Beat Expectations as Europe Rebounds. Is TSLA Ready to Rally?

By AltIndex Research · 9 min read · October 2, 4:33 pm

Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, comfortably beating Wall Street expectations and putting the company within reach of its first year of delivery growth since 2023. Our data suggests the improvement may extend beyond vehicle sales: Tesla has sharply increased hiring, employee numbers are rising, web traffic has reached a 12-month high, and public perception of the brand is beginning to recover.

The question for investors is whether those improving signals are enough to justify a stock still valued at roughly $1.4 trillion.

Tesla's car business is showing signs of recovery

Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles during the third quarter, according to the company's latest delivery report, beating the 456,896 average estimate compiled by Visible Alpha. Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 478,237 of those deliveries.

The result means that Tesla is now on track to potentially end two consecutive years of declining annual deliveries. The company needs another 311,448 deliveries in the fourth quarter to match last year's total, a level it has exceeded in every quarter since mid-2022.

Europe is playing an important role in that recovery. Tesla registrations across the EU, UK and EFTA rose strongly through the first eight months of the year, while September registrations increased 61.9% year over year in France and 38.4% in Sweden.

That follows a difficult period for Tesla in Europe, where competition from Chinese EV manufacturers intensified while CEO Elon Musk's political activity became increasingly associated with the brand. The latest numbers suggest demand is beginning to recover.

TSLA has recovered from its summer collapse, but remains below last year's price

The improvement in Tesla's business comes after an unusually volatile year for shareholders.

TSLA traded at around $436 in October last year and climbed to nearly $490 in December. The stock then spent much of 2026 moving lower before falling below $300 in late July.

Since then, the stock has staged a meaningful recovery. At $370.59, TSLA is up roughly 24% from its late-July low, although it remains about 15% below where it traded one year ago.

Tesla is hiring aggressively again

One of the strongest signals in our data is coming from inside the company.

Tesla's job postings averaged around 4,000 in late 2025. Hiring accelerated during the first half of this year before briefly dropping in July. Since then, the trend has reversed sharply.

Our data shows an average of approximately 7,930 active openings during September, nearly double the level from a year earlier.

The increase is more meaningful because it is accompanied by growth in Tesla's employee base. Our employment data points to an increase from approximately 77,600 employees last October to more than 92,600 today, an increase of about 19%.

Companies can increase job postings for many reasons, and hiring alone does not guarantee stronger financial results. But the combination of rising openings and a growing employee base indicates that Tesla is investing in capacity and talent at the same time that vehicle demand is showing signs of improvement.

Employee expectations have also moved modestly higher. Tesla's employee business outlook increased from 54 last fall to 58 today. The change is gradual, but it suggests that the hiring expansion is not occurring alongside a deterioration in how employees view the company's prospects.

Web traffic is moving higher too

There is another encouraging demand signal in our data. Tesla's website traffic reached approximately 29.7 million visits in August, one of the highest level in our 5-year window.

Traffic had generally ranged between roughly 23 million and 29 million monthly visits over the preceding year. The latest increase does not prove that more visitors will become vehicle buyers, but it fits with the broader evidence of renewed consumer interest as Tesla's European registrations recover.

Tesla's damaged public image may also be recovering

One factor hanging over Tesla during the past year has been the company's increasingly politicized brand.

Research published this year found that Musk's involvement in U.S. politics contributed to a widening partisan divide in perceptions of Tesla. That makes recent consumer research particularly interesting.

New YouGov BrandIndex data shows Tesla's U.S. Impression score improved from -20 in September 2025 to -6 in September 2026. The score remains negative, meaning more Americans still report a negative impression than a positive one, but the 14-point improvement is substantial.

Purchase consideration has improved as well. The share of U.S. adults saying they would consider Tesla when next buying a vehicle increased from 5% to 9% over the past year. Among households earning at least $150,000, consideration increased from 9% to 19%.

This does not establish that the political backlash has disappeared. But it does suggest that Tesla's brand may be recovering from the particularly weak perception levels seen last year, providing another possible explanation for improving demand.

Is TSLA finally turning a corner?

The latest delivery report removes some of the concern that Tesla's core automotive business was continuing to deteriorate. Europe is recovering, hiring has accelerated sharply, employee numbers are increasing, web traffic has strengthened and external consumer data suggests Tesla's brand perception is improving.

Our AI Score currently rates Tesla at 59 out of 100, trending towards the buy territory, but valuation remains the biggest complication. At approximately $370 per share, Tesla is worth around $1.4 trillion and trades at more than 300 times earnings. That valuation assumes significant future growth from businesses beyond vehicle sales, including autonomous driving, robotaxis, energy and robotics.

For investors, the next important checkpoint is Tesla's next earnings report. Deliveries show that more cars are reaching customers, but earnings will reveal what that growth means for pricing, margins and profitability.

The business signals are clearly stronger than they were during Tesla's summer slump. The remaining question is how much of that recovery is already reflected in a stock that still carries one of the market's most demanding valuations.