Can TikTok Growth Take Booking.com (BKNG) to the Moon?
February 11, 2:01 pm
At AltIndex, we have long maintained that traditional financial statements are lagging indicators. By the time quarterly earnings are released, the "smart money" has already moved. To find a true edge, investors must look to alternative data - the real-time digital footprints that signal shifts in consumer behavior before they hit the bottom line.
Today, we are looking at Booking.com (BKNG). While the stock has faced a recent downturn, our alternative data insights are flashing a "buy" signal originating from an unlikely place: TikTok.
Booking Going Viral
For a long time, Booking.com maintained a steady, if unremarkable, presence on TikTok with approximately 1.5 million followers. However, in the last month, the company’s social media strategy has shifted from "corporate travel brand" to "viral sensation."
Two specific pieces of content have shattered engagement records:
- The Spongebob House: A post featuring a real-life recreation of Spongebob Squarepants’ iconic pineapple home has racked up over 80 million views.
- TMNT Pizza Party: A collaboration featuring employees making pizza with the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles has garnered over 26 million views.
On top of these viral posts, the company has consistently put out content that has been viewed millions of times, resulting in a massive influx of new followers. Booking.com now sits at 2.6 million followers - a staggering 60% increase in just the last three months.
Views Leading to Growth
The skeptics would ask: "Do TikTok likes actually sell hotel rooms?" According to our latest data, the answer is a solid yes. We are seeing a direct correlation between TikTok virality and platform utility:
- App Downloads: Up an estimated 50% in the last three months.
- Web Traffic: Up an estimated 10% in the last three months.
When a brand captures the "mindshare" of Gen Z and Millennial travelers through viral content, it lowers their customer acquisition cost (CAC). Instead of paying Google millions for search ads, Booking.com is reaching millions for free via the TikTok algorithm. This surge in traffic and app installs is a potential leading indicator of a strong upcoming quarter for bookings and revenue.
But Does TikTok Growth Lead to Stock Growth?
Booking.com isn’t the first company to see social media momentum precede a stock rally. We’ve seen this play out before:
- e.l.f. Beauty (ELF): Perhaps the ultimate example of TikTok-to-Stock success. By dominating TikTok trends early, e.l.f. saw its market share explode among younger demographics. This digital dominance led to dozens of consecutive quarters of growth, with the stock price skyrocketing over 500% in a two-year period (2022-2024) following their viral peak.
- Duolingo (DUOL): By turning their mascot, Duo the Owl, into a TikTok personality, Duolingo saw app downloads surge. This social-first strategy was a primary driver in their transition to a highly profitable public company, with the stock going from $70 per share in December 2022 to over $500 per share in May 2025. Unfortunately for stockholders, the stock is down by 67% in the last 6 months due to fears that AI tools and LLMs will challenge its business.
- Chili’s (Brinker International - EAT): By leveraging the viral "Triple Dipper" TikTok trend, Chili’s transformed a stagnant menu item into a cultural phenomenon. This social-first resurgence drove a 70% surge in Triple Dipper sales and a 14.1% rise in same-store sales. Following a significant spike in TikTok engagement, the stock skyrocketed from roughly $68 per share to over $180, representing a massive 325% gain over the past year.
More examples can be found in our article TikTok Growth Is Quietly Moving These Stocks Higher.
The Opportunity: A Massive Divergence
The most compelling part of the Booking.com story right now is the divergence between social sentiment and stock price.
Despite the 60% increase in TikTok followers, BKNG stock is currently down 17% over the last three months, trading at approximately $4,300.
At AltIndex, we view this as a classic "valuation gap." The market is focused on short-term macroeconomic headwinds or past earnings, while completely ignoring the massive surge in brand relevance and new user acquisition happening in real-time.
The Bottom Line
Alternative data suggests that Booking.com is currently undervalued relative to its digital momentum. If the historical correlation between app downloads/social growth and future revenue holds true, the current dip in stock price may be a good entry point.Get More Insights
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