AI Stock Analysis: Is MPC a Buy?

June 18, 4:25 am

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: MPC) is a leading, integrated, downstream energy company that operates the nation's largest refining system. Upon closer inspection, investors will find that the company engages in refining, marketing, and transportation of petroleum products in the United States. Headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, Marathon Petroleum also operates an extensive logistics network through its subsidiary MPLX LP, offering critical infrastructure for transporting and storing crude oil and refined products.

Price & AI Score for MPC.

Fundamental Analysis

Marathon Petroleum's revenue for the last quarter was $32.7 billion. Most notably, this figure represents an increase of 11,906.25% compared to the previous quarter, a clear indication of a substantial rebound or growth in operations. Compared to the same quarter last year, however, there was a 5.66% decrease, marking an area of concern for seasonal or market-related fluctuations in demand.

The net income came in at $937 million for the last quarter, which is a decline of 35.42% compared to the previous quarter and a more substantial decrease of 65.60% year-on-year. This trend suggests margin compression or increased operational costs. EBITDA was $2.74 billion, down 8.88% from the previous quarter and down 42.69% compared to the same period last year, reflecting similar concerns in profitability and operational efficiency.

Interestingly, Marathon Petroleum boasts a current P/E ratio of 8.45, which might be considered low. This potentially indicates that the stock is undervalued in relation to its earnings, leading to a bullish outlook. It suggests that the market may be pricing the stock conservatively, presenting an opportunity for value investors.

Technical Analysis

Marathon Petroleum's current stock price stands at $171.73, showing a short-term decrease of 4.42% in the past month. However, looking at the longer term, it has increased by 54.73% over the past year, suggesting strong positive momentum despite recent setbacks. The overall trend is bearish, supported by a current SMA10 of $171.68, slightly lower than the previous SMA10 of $172.02, signaling further potential downward movement.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently at 71, indicating that the stock might be overbought, which is often a bearish signal. Investors should be cautious as overbought conditions can precede a price correction.

Alternative Data Analysis

Marathon Petroleum currently has 43 open positions, which is down by 19% over the last few months. This reduction in job postings could indicate tighter control on margins and cost-cutting measures, which is not a great sign for a growth-focused company. Employee sentiment is reported as neutral, suggesting neither strong confidence nor significant concern amongst the workforce.

In terms of customer acquisition, the company’s webpage has seen an estimated 130,000 visitors, up by 40% in recent months, which is a bullish indicator. Increased web traffic often correlates with higher customer interest and potential revenue growth. For customer engagement, their Instagram following stands at 8,200, up 3% over the past couple of months, indicating growing interest. On Twitter, Marathon Petroleum has maintained its 150 followers with no meaningful change, indicating a stable but not rapidly expanding online presence.

AltIndex’s AI score for Marathon Petroleum is 61, a buy signal. This score amalgamates fundamental, technical, and alternative data indicators to predict potential stock performance, suggesting a positive outlook according to an advanced AI model.


Marathon Petroleum presents a complex but intriguing investment case. The stark increase in recent revenue juxtaposed with declining profitability metrics such as net income and EBITDA provides a mixed outlook. The low P/E ratio and bullish long-term stock performance suggest undervaluation and potential growth, balanced against short-term bearish technical indicators and a high RSI suggesting a possible pullback.

Alternative data points add layers of cautiously optimistic trends in customer acquisition and engagement, tempered by a neutral employee sentiment and reduced job postings. The AI score of 61 further supports a buy signal.

Based on the comprehensive analysis, the recommendation is to buy Marathon Petroleum stock, but with a vigilant eye on quarterly performance for sustained improvements in profitability metrics and closely monitor market conditions to seize the best entry points.

Disclaimer: This article, generated by an experimental AI tool, is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Information is based on publicly available data and may not always be accurate or current. Visit MPC AI Stock Analysis for a more up-to-date analysis.

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