Is Chipotle’s premium price worth it?

February 6, 7:45 am

Chipotle Mexican Grill has been growing in popularity over the past few years, attracting both new customers and investors.

The company’s success can be attributed to several factors. Among a few things to mention, Chipotle has built a strong brand reputation, centered around high-quality, fresh ingredients and a commitment to sustainability. The company has adapted fast to new trends and invested heavily in digital technology, including online ordering, mobile app ordering, and delivery. And lastly, Chipotle has consistently demonstrated strong financial performance, with growing revenue and increasing profitability.

But the company is facing significant competition from both traditional fast-food chains and other fast-casual restaurants, who are all vying for market share. Chipotle's focus on fresh ingredients and high-quality customer service also requires a significant investment in labor, which can drive up costs. This, combined with increasing minimum wage laws and the ongoing debate about worker rights and pay, could negatively impact the company's profitability and make it a less attractive investment.

Looking closely at some alternative data for the company, we can see some upside on the company’s mobile apps which have seen a slight increase in downloads (up by 20% over the year according to our estimates). However, job growth remains stagnant, while other main competitors have increased their hiring efforts. Chipotle has announced plans to hire 15,000 people ahead of "Burrito season", but this has not yet shown up in the company's job postings.

The sentiment in multiple stock forums is lackluster, averaging 70 on a 100-point scale, despite the company's stock price going up, with a 14% increase from February 2022. Its main competitors have traded relatively flat during the same period.

Another thing to take into consideration is Chipotle's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, a commonly used valuation metric, which is significantly higher compared to its competitors in the fast-food industry. Chipotle has for months been hovering around 50x while Mcdonalds is hovering around 25x and Wendy's around 26x. This can be due to the fact that Chipotle has demonstrated strong growth in recent years and that the company has a relatively low level of debt compared to its competitors.

Take all this into consideration and it’s hard to see a strong upside for Chipotle in the short term. The company has seen success in recent years (and the stock price already reflects that) due to its growth potential and commitment to new trends such as fresh ingredients, sustainability, and digital technology. However, it faces significant competition, increasing minimum wage laws, no real growth in web traffic or app downloads, and stagnant job growth. The company's PE ratio is also significantly higher compared to the fast-food industry. These factors and a market that has already pumped the price in the last couple of days could make Chipotle less attractive as an investment opportunity.

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