Is Rivian a Good Stock to buy or Sell?

December 26, 1:12 pm

Rivian is an American electric vehicle automaker and automotive technology company founded in 2009. Rivian has gained significant attention for its focus on electric trucks and SUVs, aiming to carve out a niche in the electric vehicle market with vehicles designed for both on-road and off-road performance. The company's flagship vehicles, the R1T electric pickup truck, and the R1S SUV, boast impressive performance metrics and innovative features such as a modular platform that can support various types of vehicles. Rivian's vision includes not only consumer vehicles but also commercial delivery vans, exemplified by its partnership with Amazon to produce electric delivery vehicles.

Fundamental Analysis

Today's stock price for Rivian (RIVN) is $23.79. This is an increase of 45.06% compared to a month ago, indicating a positive short-term trend. Compared to a year ago, there is an increase of 34.10%, suggesting a positive long-term trend. The company's revenue for the last quarter was $1.28B, an increase of 20.15% compared to the quarter before it, marking a substantiated positive sign of growth. However, its net income for the last quarter was $1.37B, which represents a decrease of 14.39% compared to the prior quarter, signaling an area that might require scrutiny. Yet, comparing year over year, there is an increase of 20.71%, highlighting ongoing growth. Similarly, EBITDA for the last quarter stood at $1.06B, down by 15.03% compared to the previous quarter but showcased a year-over-year increase of 30.75%. The earnings report suggests a trajectory of growth despite some concerns about the quarter-over-quarter decline in profits.

Technical Analysis

The trend for RIVN is currently bullish. The current Simple Moving Average for the past 10 days (SMA10) is $23.45, which is higher than the previous SMA10 of $23.35. This increment indicates a potential upward trend in price movement. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35.5, which places the stock in a neutral condition, suggesting there are no immediate signs of overbought or oversold market conditions.

Alternative Data Analysis

Rivian currently shows a decline in open job positions with 798 open positions, a decrease of 6% in the last couple of months. This could signal cost-cutting measures or a pivot in the company's operational strategy. Customer acquisition metrics are, however, trending positively. Rivian's website visitation has risen by 26%, with an estimate of 1.8 million visitors in the last couple of months. Additionally, mobile app downloads have surged by 99%, with an estimated 150 users downloading their app daily. These figures suggest a growing interest and potential expansion in Rivian's customer base. However, Rivian's social media presence appears stagnant, with followers on Instagram and Twitter showing no significant change in recent months.

Conclusion and Recommendation

Based on the data provided and the analysis herein, Rivian appears to showcase promising long-term gains with substantial year-over-year growth in both revenue and net income. The short-term and long-term upward trend in the stock price, coupled with positive customer acquisition trends and website traffic, are bullish indicators for the company's market presence and potential sales growth. However, caution is warranted due to the quarter-over-quarter decline in net income and EBITDA, along with a reduction in job postings, which may indicate underlying challenges. Investors should consider Rivian's growth potential in the nascent electric vehicle industry against these risks. Given these factors, a conservative approach may involve closely monitoring Rivian's subsequent quarterly results and strategic direction before making substantial investment decisions. As always, prospective investors are advised to conduct comprehensive personal research or seek professional advice tailored to their individual financial goals and risk tolerance.

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