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Starbucks - AI Stock Analysis

Analysis generated August 8, 2025

Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) is a global coffeehouse chain based in Seattle, Washington. It is renowned for its premium coffee, quality food offerings, and superior customer experience. The company operates globally with a mix of company-owned and licensed stores. Starbucks has consistently pushed boundaries with innovative offerings and has cultivated a loyal customer base over the years. The company's brand equity is strong, fostering robust sales in the global market.

Fundamental Analysis

Revenue for the last quarter was $9.46 billion. This is an increase of 7.93% compared to the quarter before it, which is a positive sign of growth. Moreover, compared to the same quarter last year, there is an increase of 3.75%, suggesting that Starbucks is achieving positive year-over-year growth.

Net income for the last quarter was $558 million. This represents a significant increase of 45.31% compared to the quarter before it, indicating strong profitability. However, it is essential to note that compared to the same quarter last year, net income has decreased by 47.07%. This significant drop could raise concerns about sustainability in profitability.

EBITDA for the last quarter was $1.1 billion. This denotes an increase of 3.69% compared to the previous quarter, which is a good indicator of financial health. Nevertheless, compared to the same quarter last year, there is a decrease of 43.47%, raising potential concerns.

The current P/E ratio is 39.4. This high P/E ratio may indicate that the stock is potentially overvalued, suggesting a bearish outlook for investors looking at valuation metrics.

Technical Analysis

Today's stock price is $91.51. This represents a decrease of 3.61% compared to a month ago, which might be concerning in the short term. However, compared to a year ago, there is an increase of 24.91%, suggesting a positive long-term trend.

Despite this long-term optimism, the trend is currently bearish. The current SMA10 is 89.40, which is slightly lower than the previous SMA10 of 89.55, suggesting a potential downward trend in price movement. Additionally, the RSI is 82.8, indicating an overbought condition, signaling a bearish outlook in the short term.

Alternative Data Analysis

Starting with job postings and employee sentiment, Starbucks has 13,434 open positions according to data from major job boards. This number is down by 45% in the last couple of months, indicating a company either trying to improve its margins or cut costs. This is generally not a great sign for a growing company.

The business outlook among employees at Starbucks is low, with only an estimate of 44% of employees having a positive outlook. This is concerning because employee sentiment often impacts productivity and overall company performance.

Moving on to customer acquisition, Starbucks has an estimate of 16 million visitors to their webpage, with no meaningful increase or decrease in the last couple of months, indicating stability but not growth. The number of mobile app downloads is down by 100% in the last couple of months, a worrisome trend as this could indicate a loss in customer engagement.

In terms of customer engagement, Starbucks has 18 million followers on Instagram and 11 million followers on Twitter. However, both platforms have seen a loss in follower growth recently, indicating declining interest in the company. AltIndex’s AI score, which integrates various metrics to predict stock performance, puts Starbucks at a score of 31. This is a strong sell signal.

Conclusion and Recommendation

In conclusion, while Starbucks shows some positive signs in revenue growth and long-term stock price appreciation, several concerning metrics cannot be ignored. The decrease in net income and EBITDA year-over-year, high P/E ratio, bearish short-term technical indicators, and declining alternative data metrics suggest a cautious approach for potential investors. Therefore, the overall recommendation is to carefully evaluate the stock before making any investment decisions, with a current leaning towards a sell or hold strategy given the mixed signals in both fundamental and alternative analyses.

Disclaimer: This AI stock analysis, generated by an experimental AI tool, is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Information is based on publicly available data and may not always be accurate or current.