AltIndex Predictions Prove Accurate as Roku and Coinbase Outshine Expectations
February 14, 1:15 pm
Last month, we published an article identifying four growth stocks - Coinbase, Roku, Oscar Health, and iRobot - that we believed had strong upside potential based on alternative data insights. The results speak for themselves: Roku has surged by 32%, Coinbase up by 9%, and iRobot has gained 19%. The only exception is Oscar Health, which has declined by 11%.
With three out of four picks delivering significant gains in just a month, this reinforces the power of alternative data in stock analysis. Let’s dive into the two standout performers—Roku and Coinbase—to see what fueled their success.
Roku’s Strong Earnings
In our initial analysis, we highlighted Roku’s impressive momentum in alternative data metrics. App downloads were up 48% year-over-year, web traffic increased by an estimated 4%, and Instagram followers grew by 8%. These indicators suggested strong user demand, which has now been validated by Roku’s latest earnings report.
Roku’s fourth-quarter earnings exceeded expectations, sending its stock price up 15% post-earnings. The company reported:
- Revenue growth of 22% year-over-year, reaching $1.2 billion.
- Operating losses narrowed significantly to $39.1 million from $104.2 million a year ago.
- Forward guidance for 2025 estimates revenue of $4.61 billion and Q1 revenue of $1 billion, aligning with market expectations.
- User base expansion, surpassing 90 million households in January 2025.
The takeaway? Alternative data accurately signaled Roku’s strong performance ahead of earnings, reinforcing why tracking digital engagement trends is critical for investors.
Coinbase’s Blowout Earnings and the Market Reaction
Coinbase was another strong pick based on alternative data. We noted increasing app downloads, web traffic, and social media engagement—suggesting heightened interest in its services. Despite crypto market volatility, these indicators pointed to potential upside for the stock.
Coinbase’s Q4 earnings confirmed its growth:
- Earnings per share (EPS) of $4.68, far surpassing $1.04 in the prior year and the expected $2.11.
- Revenue surged 138% to $2.27 billion, beating analyst forecasts of $1.84 billion.
- Transaction revenue jumped to $1.6 billion, well above expectations of $1.26 billion.
- Subscription and services revenue rose 71% to $641 million, topping estimates.
- Monthly transacting users grew 24% year-over-year.
Despite these outstanding results, Coinbase’s stock dropped post-earnings, largely due to its 15% rally leading up to the report. This highlights a common market phenomenon - stocks that run up significantly ahead of earnings may see profit-taking even after strong results.
The Power of Alternative Data in Investing
The success of Roku and Coinbase in just one month underscores the importance of incorporating alternative data into investment decisions. Traditional financial metrics remain important, but real-time, leading insights - such as app downloads, web traffic, and social media trends - can offer a crucial edge.
For investors looking to stay ahead, tracking these alternative indicators can help identify high-potential stocks before the market catches on. As this past month has shown, alternative data is not just a supplement to traditional analysis - it’s a necessity for anyone aiming to outperform the market.
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