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Super Micro Computer - AI Stock Analysis

Analysis generated June 16, 2025

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI) is a global leader in high-performance, high-efficiency server technology and innovation. Founded in 1993, the company is known for providing end-to-end green computing solutions, including server, storage, blade, and networking systems. As of now, the company's solutions are adopted by diverse markets, including data centers, cloud computing, enterprise IT, big data, and HPC applications.

Fundamental Analysis

The revenue for the last quarter was $4.6 billion. Compared to the previous quarter, this revenue is down by 18.99%, indicating some cause for concern in the short-term business operations. However, in a year-over-year comparison, the revenue shows a significant 19.48% increase, suggesting positive growth over a longer period.

Net income for the last quarter stood at $384 million, representing a 19.87% increase from the prior quarter—a positive growth sign. Nevertheless, there's been a slight year-over-year decline of 4.51% in net income, which may require scrutiny to understand underlying causes.

EBITDA for the last quarter was reported to be $25 million, a dramatic 93.71% decrease compared to the previous quarter and a 93.75% decrease year over year. This significant drop raises serious concerns about operational efficiency and profitability.

Super Micro Computer currently has a P/E ratio of 22.59. This valuation multiple suggests that the stock is within a normal range, neither overvalued nor undervalued.

It is also important to note that there have been recent insider sales, which can be a bearish signal, potentially indicating a lack of confidence from within the company.

Technical Analysis

Today's stock price of $43.71 represents a decrease of 5.29% compared to a month ago, which raises short-term concerns. Furthermore, the stock has decreased by 50.74% over the past year, marking a significant long-term decline.

The short-term trend is bullish, with the current SMA10 at 42.41, up from the previous SMA10 of 42.19. Although this indicates a potential upward trend in price movement, it isn't strongly convincing given the RSI (Relative Strength Index) standing at 37.1, which indicates a neutral condition.

Alternative Data Analysis

In terms of job postings and employee sentiment, Super Micro Computer has 681 open positions. This is an increase of 21% over the last couple of months, indicating potential growth and expansion, which can be a healthy sign for the company.

However, the business outlook among employees seems to be neutral, neither strongly positive nor negative.

Customer acquisition data show that Super Micro Computer's webpage estimates 1.1 million visitors, but this number is down by 30% in the last couple of months, suggesting a worrying trend in terms of customer interest.

On social media, the company has shown promising signs. Instagram followers have increased by 47% to 15,000, while Twitter followers are up by 5% to 61,000, indicating growing public interest and engagement with the company.

According to AltIndex's AI score, which assesses a company's stock price through fundamental, technical, and alternative data analysis, Super Micro Computer has an AI score of 51. This points toward a 'hold' signal, suggesting that the stock may neither be a strong buy nor a strong sell at this time.

Conclusion

Considering all the available data, Super Micro Computer presents a mixed picture. While the revenue trends show strong year-over-year growth, both the quarter-over-quarter revenue and EBITDA declines are concerning. The net income increase from the previous quarter gives a mixed signal when juxtaposed with the year's slight decline.

Technical indicators offer an ambiguous outlook, showing a slight bullish trend yet marred by significant long-term declines. Meanwhile, alternative data reveals a company poised for internal growth with increasing job positions and social media engagement but suffers from declining webpage visits.

Based on a balanced consideration of fundamental, technical, and alternative data, the recommendation would be to hold the stock. Investors should monitor the company closely for signs of consistent profitability and operational efficiency improvements before committing further investment.

Disclaimer: This AI stock analysis, generated by an experimental AI tool, is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Information is based on publicly available data and may not always be accurate or current.