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Apollo Global Management - AI Stock Analysis

Analysis generated November 4, 2024

Apollo Global Management, Inc. is a global alternative investment management firm. Apollo's business primarily operates through three segments: Private Equity, Credit, and Real Assets. The company has built a reputation over the years for its strong ability to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns for its investors across economic cycles. However, like many companies within the financial sector, Apollo is subject to market volatility and economic changes which can significantly affect its performance.

Fundamental Analysis

Recent financial reports reveal critical insights into Apollo Global Management's stability and profitability. A look at the revenue for the last quarter, which stood at $6.02 billion, shows a troubling trend. While there is a 14.52% decline from the previous quarter, the more concerning figure is the 56.08% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. These revenue figures highlight potential struggles in the company's ability to maintain consistent income.

On a slightly more positive note, net income for the last quarter was $853 million. Although this represents a 40.22% decline from the prior quarter, there is notable year-over-year growth of 42.40%. This indicates that, despite recent setbacks, Apollo Global Management has managed to improve its profitability on an annual basis.

The company's EBITDA for the last quarter was $1.73 billion, which also saw a decline of 30.13% from the previous quarter. However, a 30.29% increase compared to the same quarter in the previous year suggests positive long-term growth. The current P/E ratio stands at 15.24, which appears to be within a normal range for the industry, indicating that the stock is not overvalued or undervalued at this point.

Additionally, recent insider trading activity, with company insiders selling their stock, might signal potential bearish sentiments internally. This often indicates that those with the most intimate knowledge of the company foresee challenging times ahead or a potential overvaluation of the company’s stock.

Technical Analysis

Today's stock price of $140.45 marks a 3.78% increase over the past month, signifying a positive short-term uptrend. Moreover, compared to the same time last year, the stock has appreciated by 68.02%, showcasing a strong long-term upward movement. However, it should be noted that the overall trend remains bearish.

The current Simple Moving Average (SMA10) is 142.96, which is lower than the previous SMA10 of 143.23. This downward shift in SMA10 could indicate a potential short-term decline in price movement. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 62.9, reflecting a neutral market condition. This suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold at the current levels.

Alternative Data Analysis

When analyzing alternative data, several external factors highlight the company's operational and market sentiment. For instance, Apollo Global Management currently has 76 job openings, which is down by 13% over the last few months. This decline in job postings could suggest an effort to cut costs or improve margins, but it also signals a slowing growth environment.

Employee sentiment towards the company's business outlook remains neutral, which does not provide any clear positive or negative insights into the firm's internal morale or future performance. Another red flag arises from the estimated 220,000 visitors to the company's website, a figure that has fallen by 39% over recent months. This significant drop in web traffic may indicate a loss in customer interest or acquisition.

On a more encouraging note, Apollo Global Management's Twitter page has seen a 4% increase in followers, now totaling 9,900. This demonstrates some growing interest in the company among the public or potential market participants. Additionally, AltIndex’s AI score—predicting stock price movements based on fundamental, technical, and alternative data—stands at 59, indicating a 'hold' signal.

Conclusion and Recommendation

In conclusion, Apollo Global Management presents a mixed bag of signals. The fundamental analysis reveals some concerns with declining revenue and short-term income setbacks, albeit with positive annual growth in net income and EBITDA. The technical analysis shows a recent rise in stock price but also a bearish overall trend and potential short-term declines. Meanwhile, alternative data points such as reduced job openings and a significant decrease in web traffic present additional cautionary flags.

Taken together, these various factors suggest that Apollo Global Management may face near-term challenges, although it has demonstrated some level of resilience and long-term growth potential. Given the AI score of 59 indicating a 'hold' position, it would be prudent for investors to maintain their current investments in the company but remain cautious about making additional commitments until clearer positive trends emerge.

Disclaimer: This AI stock analysis, generated by an experimental AI tool, is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Information is based on publicly available data and may not always be accurate or current.