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Cracker Barrel - AI Stock Analysis

Analysis generated July 2, 2024

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (NASDAQ: CBRL) is a well-established American chain of combined restaurant and gift stores with a Southern country theme. Founded in 1969, the company has grown to over 650 locations across the United States. Cracker Barrel is known for its homestyle cooking, nostalgic atmosphere, and unique retail offerings. The company aims to provide comfort food and a dining experience that evokes Americana and small-town charm.

Fundamental Analysis

For the last quarter, Cracker Barrel reported a revenue of $935 million. This marks a solid increase of 13.83% compared to the previous quarter, suggesting a positive growth trajectory. Year-over-year growth is also slightly positive at 0.16%. Revenue growth indicates that the company is capable of attracting more customers or increasing spending per customer, which is a good sign.

Net income for the last quarter was $27 million. This represents a staggering increase of 386.33% compared to the quarter before it, a very positive sign indicating operational efficiency and profit maximization. However, compared to the same quarter last year, net income saw a decrease of 12.98%, which may be a cause for concern about sustainability.

EBITDA came in at $0, maintaining stability when compared to both the previous quarter and the same quarter last year. While a stable EBITDA is generally good, the zero figure might point to challenges in maintaining profitability.

The current Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 15.61, which is in a normal range. Neither particularly high nor low, this indicates that the stock is reasonably valued based on its earnings.

Technical Analysis

Today's stock price is $40.66, a decrease of 16.65% compared to a month ago. Over the past year, the stock has decreased by 53.14%, indicating a bearish trend. The trend is clearly downward, supported by the Simple Moving Average (SMA10) currently at $41.99, compared to the previous SMA10 of $42.37.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 48.3, which is in neutral territory. A neutral RSI suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, indicating potential for movement in either direction.

Alternative Data Analysis

Cracker Barrel has 5,600 open positions according to data from popular job boards. This number has decreased by 44% over the past couple of months, which can indicate efforts to improve margins or cut costs. Fewer job postings typically suggest a slowdown in operational expansion.

The company's website attracted an estimated 4.8 million visitors, which has declined by 10% in the last couple of months. This trend raises concerns about customer retention and acquisition.

In terms of social media engagement, Cracker Barrel has 300,000 followers on Instagram and 120,000 followers on Twitter, both showing no substantial increases or decreases recently. This indicates a stagnation in customer engagement on social media platforms.

The AltIndex AI score for Cracker Barrel is 37, a sell signal derived from a composite of fundamental, technical, and alternative data analysis.

Conclusion & Recommendation

Cracker Barrel demonstrates mixed signals in its stock analysis. The company shows positive revenue growth and significant net income improvement quarter over quarter, but increased concern arises from the year-over-year net income decrease and flat EBITDA. Technical analysis indicates a strong bearish trend, with significant declines in both short-term and long-term stock prices, accompanied by neutral RSI, and declining SMAs.

Alternative data adds to the concern, with reduced job listings, declining web traffic, and stagnant social media follower counts, which could translate to a weakening market position.

Taking into account the combined fundamental, technical, and alternative data analysis, the recommendation leans towards caution. The AltIndex AI score of 37 indicates a sell signal. Therefore, for current and potential investors, a hold or sell position is advisable unless there are future catalysts or improvements in the discussed metrics.

Disclaimer: This AI stock analysis, generated by an experimental AI tool, is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Information is based on publicly available data and may not always be accurate or current.