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Terran Orbital - AI Stock Analysis

Analysis generated November 20, 2024

Terran Orbital is a provider of satellite technology and infrastructure, delivering end-to-end satellite solutions for commercial and government clients. The company focuses on the design, production, and management of small satellites. Terran Orbital has positioned itself as a key player in the rapidly growing space economy, which is driven by increasing demand for satellite services and technology advancements.

Fundamental Analysis

Revenue for the last quarter was $16 million, representing an increase of 16.55% compared to the previous quarter. This growth figure is a positive indicator for the company's short-term performance. However, on a year-over-year basis, revenue fell by 23.04%, highlighting potential long-term challenges.

Net income for the last quarter was -$35 million. Although this reflects an improvement of 33.55% from the previous quarter, it marks a decline of 25.77% compared to the same quarter last year. These figures underscore profitability concerns as the company struggles to achieve sustainable growth.

EBITDA for the last quarter stood at -$20 million, marking a 49.00% increase from the prior quarter, demonstrating better operational performance. However, EBITDA decreased by 22.47% from the same quarter last year, suggesting that the company still faces significant cost and efficiency challenges.

Technical Analysis

Today's stock price is $0.25, identical to the stock price a month ago, which shows short-term stability. Nevertheless, the stock price has plummeted by 67.53% year-over-year, raising long-term concerns. The trend is currently neutral with the SMA10 (Simple Moving Average of last 10 days) holding steady at $0.25, indicating no significant change in the trend.

However, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at 70.6, suggesting that the stock may be in an overbought condition, which could potentially foreshadow a bearish phase.

Alternative Data Analysis

Job postings at Terran Orbital have declined by 29% in recent months, indicating potential cost-cutting measures. Only 33% of employees have a positive business outlook, a concerning sign further dampered by a 34% drop in employee sentiment over the last few months.

Website traffic has increased by 18%, reaching an estimate of 13,000 visitors, a promising sign for customer acquisition. On social media, the company has 33,000 Instagram followers (down by 1%) and 5,000 Twitter followers (no change).

Terran Orbital's AI score, according to AltIndex's predictive model, is 19, signaling a strong sell.

Conclusion and Recommendation

Based on a comprehensive analysis, Terran Orbital presents a mixed bag of indicators. The increase in short-term revenue and EBITDA are promising signs, yet the year-over-year decline in fundamental metrics and a sharp drop in long-term stock price are troubling. Technical signals suggest a neutral trend with the potential for a downturn due to overbought conditions. Alternative data further reinforce caution given the decline in job postings, employee sentiment, and social media engagement.

With the combination of these factors, caution is recommended. The company's mixed metrics across multiple dimensions suggest that it faces significant challenges. Investors may want to closely monitor upcoming quarterly results and broader market conditions before making any substantial commitments.

Disclaimer: This AI stock analysis, generated by an experimental AI tool, is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Information is based on publicly available data and may not always be accurate or current.