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Sunrun - AI Stock Analysis

Analysis generated May 28, 2024

Sunrun (NASDAQ: RUN) is a leading provider of residential solar energy services in the United States. Founded in 2007, the company offers solar energy solutions, including leasing and power purchase agreements, which make solar energy more accessible and affordable for residential customers. Sunrun's market position is strengthened by its comprehensive service offerings, financial arrangements, and strong customer relationships.

Fundamental Analysis

The company reported revenue of $458 million in the last quarter, which reflects a decrease of 11.54% compared to the previous quarter and a decrease of 22.32% compared to the same quarter last year. This decline in revenue is a potential red flag, as it might indicate issues with customer acquisition or competitive pressures in the market.

On a more positive note, Sunrun’s net income for the last quarter was $88 million, marking an increase of 74.92% compared to the previous quarter and a significant rise of 63.47% compared to the same quarter last year. This shows strong cost management and profitability improvements.

The EBITDA for the last quarter came in at $33 million, representing an increase of 40.19% from the prior quarter and a 68.83% rise compared to the same quarter in the previous year. This further underscores the company's increasing operational efficiency and profitability.

The company’s current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is 24.64, which is within a normal range. It neither overvalues nor undervalues the company significantly relative to its earnings.

Insider activity shows that some company insiders have been selling their stock, signaling potential bearish sentiment and caution among those closely connected to the company's operations.

Technical Analysis

Today's stock price for Sunrun stands at $13.50, reflecting a significant increase of 31.20% compared to a month ago, which indicates a short-term bullish trend. However, the price is down by 19.79% compared to a year ago, raising concerns about the company’s longer-term performance.

The Simple Moving Average (SMA) for 10 days is currently $12.73, up from the previous 10-day SMA of $12.56. This suggests a potential upward trend in the stock price.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 78.1, which indicates that the stock is currently overbought — a potential bearish condition that may foreshadow a future correction.

Alternative Data Analysis

When examining Sunrun's job postings and employee sentiment, it’s notable that the company has 303 open positions according to popular job boards, down by 19% over the last couple of months. This indicates a potential effort to cut costs or improve margins at the expense of growth, which isn’t a positive sign for a growing company.

The customer acquisition insights are mixed. Sunrun has seen an increase in webpage visitors, with an estimate of 880,000 visits, up by 11% over the past few months, indicating a bullish trend and potential for customer acquisition. However, their mobile app downloads are estimated at 5 per day, down by 44% recently, which could suggest a loss in customer engagement.

Looking at customer engagement on social media, Sunrun has 34,000 Instagram followers, up by 8% in the last couple of months, indicating positive engagement. Their Twitter account has 52,000 followers, maintaining the same number over the past few months, suggesting stable but stagnant interest in the company.

The AltIndex AI score for Sunrun is 45, suggesting a "hold" signal based on fundamental, technical, and alternative data analysis.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Sunrun demonstrates both strengths and weaknesses in its performance and outlook. The recent declines in revenue and bearish signals from insider trading present challenges. However, the positive trends in net income, EBITDA, and short-term stock price movement provide reasons for optimism. The mixed trends in alternative data, such as webpage visitors and mobile app downloads, further complicate the assessment.

Considering all the data provided, including the AltIndex AI score suggesting a "hold," I recommend a cautious approach. Investors should keep an eye on the company's revenue trends and insider activities while considering both the opportunities and risks reflected in the fundamental, technical, and alternative data.

Disclaimer: This AI stock analysis, generated by an experimental AI tool, is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Information is based on publicly available data and may not always be accurate or current.