Important note

This AI stock analysis for Shoe Carnival is not up to date. Creating and accessing our AI stock Analysis (powered by our data and Chat GPT) is only available for our premium users. Sign up to get access today!

Shoe Carnival - AI Stock Analysis

Analysis generated June 3, 2024

Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASDAQ: SCVL) is a leading retailer of family footwear in the United States. The company operates its stores under the Shoe Carnival brand, offering a wide selection of footwear for men, women, and children, along with various accessories. Shoe Carnival’s unique in-store experience includes loud music, announcements about limited-time specials, and sales associates engaging with customers, creating a vibrant shopping environment. The company predominantly targets value-seeking customers and has established a solid presence in the market with numerous stores across the country.

Fundamental Analysis

In the context of fundamental analysis, Shoe Carnival has displayed some concerning numbers:

• Revenue: The revenue for the last quarter was $280 million, representing a sizable decrease of 12.42% compared to the previous quarter. This quarter-over-quarter drop signals challenges in maintaining sales. Year-over-year, revenue showed a 3.65% decline, which, though smaller, is still negative.
• Net Income: Net income for the last quarter was $16 million, down 29.01% from the quarter before. Compared to the same quarter last year, there is a 28.18% decrease in net income, pointing to profitability pressures.
• EBITDA: EBITDA was $28 million, indicating a 23.71% decrease from the previous quarter and a 22.72% decrease year-over-year.
• P/E Ratio: The current P/E ratio of 13.93 is within a typical range, suggesting the stock is neither undervalued nor overvalued compared to its earnings. However, it does not mitigate the concerns raised by declining revenue, net income, and EBITDA.
• Insider Activity: The recent insider selling could be a bearish signal, potentially indicating that those with the most intimate knowledge of the company may have concerns about its short-term performance.

Technical Analysis

The recent technical indicators present a mixed but somewhat optimistic picture for Shoe Carnival:

• Stock Price: Today’s stock price of $39.29 marks an increase of 13.55% from a month ago, suggesting short-term bullish sentiment. Compared to a year ago, the price is up by 91.75%, indicating strong long-term performance.
• SMA10: The current SMA10 is 37.61, slightly higher than the previous SMA10 of 37.39, signaling a potential upward trend in stock price.
• RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 60.6, which is in a neutral range but closer to being overbought, hinting at potential caution for investors relying solely on technical trends.

Alternative Data Analysis

Alternative data provides additional insights into Shoe Carnival's market positioning and consumer engagement:

• Job Postings & Employee Sentiment: There are currently 254 open positions, up by 6% in recent months. This could indicate expansion plans and a positive outlook for future growth.
• Customer Acquisition: Shoe Carnival's estimated web traffic is steady at 5 million visitors with no significant changes, and mobile app downloads remain stable at 350 users per day.
• Customer Engagement: The company's social media presence has stagnated with 130,000 Instagram followers and 25,000 Twitter followers, unchanged over the last few months, possibly hinting at a plateau in customer interest.
• AI Stock Price Prediction: AltIndex’s AI score for Shoe Carnival stands at 17, which signals a strong sell recommendation, consolidating concerns from various data points.

Conclusion and Recommendation

In summary, Shoe Carnival presents a mixed bag of signals. Fundamentally, the company shows declining financial metrics with reductions in revenue, net income, and EBITDA. The insider selling adds a bearish undertone. Technically, the stock has displayed strong performance over the past year and retains some positive short-term momentum. However, the RSI is approaching levels that could warrant caution.

From an alternative data standpoint, while job postings indicate potential growth, stable web traffic and social media engagement suggest that the company may not be building a broader customer base at the desired rate. The strong sell signal from the AI analysis adds to the cautious outlook.

Given these factors, the recommendation would be to hold or consider a cautious approach if already invested. New investors might want to wait for clearer signs of improvement in the company's fundamentals and customer engagement before taking a position.

Disclaimer: This AI stock analysis, generated by an experimental AI tool, is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Information is based on publicly available data and may not always be accurate or current.