Important note

This AI stock analysis for Tilly's is not up to date. Creating and accessing our AI stock Analysis (powered by our data and Chat GPT) is only available for our premium users. Sign up to get access today!

Tilly's - AI Stock Analysis

Analysis generated November 20, 2024

Tilly's, Inc. (NYSE: TLYS) is a leading specialty retailer in the United States focused on young men's and women's casual apparel, footwear, and accessories. The company operates primarily through mall-based locations but also has a significant online presence. Tilly's is known for its wide selection of well-known and emerging brands aimed at the fashion-forward youth demographic.

Fundamental Analysis

Revenue for the last quarter was $163M, marking an increase of 40.58% compared to the previous quarter. This is a positive sign of growth, indicating a strong demand recovery. Year-over-year, revenue saw an increase of 1.82%, indicating steady growth.

Net income for the last quarter was $69,000, an increase of 99.65% compared to the previous quarter and 93.87% year-over-year. This strong growth in net income reflects improved profitability.

EBITDA for the last quarter was $2.4M, an impressive increase of 113.29% from the previous quarter and a massive 321.33% year-over-year increase. This sharp rise indicates robust operational efficiency and cost management.

The current P/E ratio stands at 24.52, which is within a normal range. It neither suggests the stock is cheap nor overly expensive, providing a balanced view of the company's earnings valuation.

Technical Analysis

Today’s stock price is $3.57, which represents a decrease of 19.23% compared to a month ago and 57.45% compared to a year ago. This indicates a concerning long-term downward trend.

The current SMA10 (Simple Moving Average over 10 days) is 3.97, which is lower than the previous SMA10 of 4.03. This suggests a potential downward trend in price movement.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is 31.1, indicating a neutral condition. Typically, an RSI below 30 signifies that a stock is oversold, and above 70 indicates overbought conditions. Therefore, Tilly's stock is nearing the oversold territory but is currently deemed neutral.

Alternative Data Analysis

On the job front, Tilly’s has 118 open positions, down by 62% in the last couple of months, indicating a company potentially cutting costs, which may not bode well for growth expectations.

Employee sentiment at Tilly’s is low, with only 33% of employees having a positive outlook. This low sentiment can hinder employee productivity and morale, affecting overall company performance.

The company’s website has seen 2.9M visitors, down by 20% in recent months. This decline could signal reducing customer interest and potential revenue drops.

On social media, Tilly’s has 460,000 Instagram followers and 52,000 Twitter followers, both down by 1% in the past couple of months. This slight decrease indicates waning consumer interest and engagement.

According to AltIndex’s AI score that analyzes various data aspects, Tilly’s has an AI score of 18, signaling a strong sell.

Conclusion and Recommendation

Tilly's shows mixed signals across various analysis spectrums. While the company has demonstrated strong fundamental improvements in revenue, net income, and EBITDA, its stock performance has been bearish with a significant long-term downward trend. Technical indicators also suggest caution with the stock nearing oversold conditions but not quite there yet. Alternative data further paints a challenging picture with declining job postings, low employee sentiment, and reduced online traffic and social media engagement.

Given these mixed indicators, a cautious approach is recommended. Prospective investors might want to keep an eye on Tilly’s for any positive shifts in its technical or alternative metrics before making any significant investment. Current investors should consider the recent growth in fundamental metrics but remain vigilant, given the bearish trend and concerning alternative data signals.

Disclaimer: This AI stock analysis, generated by an experimental AI tool, is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Information is based on publicly available data and may not always be accurate or current.