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Expedia - AI Stock Analysis

Analysis generated May 14, 2024

Expedia Group, Inc. is a global travel technology company. It operates through numerous brands, including Expedia.com, Hotels.com, Hotwire, and Travelocity, among others. Known for providing a comprehensive suite of travel services ranging from airline tickets, hotel reservations, car rentals, to vacation packages, Expedia serves a broad range of customers around the world. The company’s mission is to make travel easier, more enjoyable, and more accessible through their innovative technology and vast network of travel partners.

Fundamental Analysis

Expedia's revenue for the last quarter was reported at $2.79 billion. Although this marks a slight 0.54% decrease compared to the previous quarter, it represents a significant 6.50% increase compared to the same quarter last year. The year-over-year growth showcases resilience and an upward trajectory in revenue generation.

The net income for the last quarter stood at $135 million. While this indicates a 202.27% decrease compared to the preceding quarter, reflecting some short-term concerns, it shows a 6.90% improvement compared to the same quarter of the previous year, suggesting better long-term profitability.

EBITDA for the last quarter was $77 million, which points to a severe decline of 131.69% from the previous quarter and a drastic 870.00% reduction compared to the same quarter last year. These figures highlight critical areas needing attention, potentially in operational efficiency or cost management.

The current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is 21.41, which is generally considered within the healthy range. It neither signals overvaluation nor undervaluation, reflecting a standard market expectation of future earnings growth.

Technical Analysis

Today's stock price is $113.48, which marks a 13.02% decrease from a month ago and could be concerning for short-term investors. However, when viewed over a year, the stock price has increased by 23.04%, indicating a positive long-term trend despite current bearish sentiments.

The current Simple Moving Average over 10 days (SMA10) is $113.30, slightly lower than the previous SMA10 of $113.49. This marginal decline can be interpreted as a potential signal for downward price movement, yet is not drastic enough to warrant a definitive bearish call. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64.3, which is considered neutral and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold.

Alternative Data Analysis

Expedia currently has 278 open job positions according to major job boards, a stable number suggesting no major changes in workforce demand or business stability. Employee sentiment remains neutral, indicating neither overwhelming satisfaction nor dissatisfaction among the workforce.

On the customer acquisition front, Expedia has about 76 million visitors to their webpage. This figure is down by 13% in recent months, raising concerns about a potential decrease in customer interest or market share. However, the company sees an estimate of 35,000 daily downloads of their mobile apps, up by 31% recently, signifying robust growth in mobile engagement.

Customer engagement data show that Expedia has 580,000 followers on Instagram, up by 4%, showing increased social media interest. Conversely, the number of followers on Twitter remains stagnant at 450,000, indicating no significant change in interest via that platform.

The AltIndex’s AI score for Expedia sits at 52, which translates to a 'hold' recommendation. This AI score considers multiple factors from fundamental, technical, and alternative data analyses to provide an aggregated view of the stock’s potential.

Conclusion and Recommendation

Expedia exhibits both strengths and weaknesses in its current financial health. While revenue and net income show commendable year-over-year growth, significant drops in EBITDA and short-term declines in revenue and net income necessitate cautious optimism. Technically, the stock price paints a mixed picture with bearish short-term trends against positive long-term growth.

Alternative data presents a balanced narrative with stable job postings, mixed customer acquisition metrics, and positive signals from mobile app interaction and Instagram engagement. However, the decline in web traffic and stagnant Twitter follower growth could be warning signals.

Given the AI score of 52 suggesting a hold, combined with the mixed signals from fundamental, technical, and alternative data analyses, the recommended stance for Expedia is to hold the stock. Investors should watch for more definitive trends or emerging data points to guide future investment decisions.