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GUESS - AI Stock Analysis

Analysis generated April 1, 2024

GUESS, Inc. is an American fashion brand and retailer. Founded in 1981 by the Marciano brothers, it quickly became a symbol of a young, sexy, and adventurous lifestyle. Over time, GUESS has expanded its product range to include fashion accessories such as watches, jewelry, perfumes, bags, and shoes. The company operates through multiple segments, including retail, wholesale, and licensing, and is known for its marketing and branding initiatives, including high-profile ad campaigns and celebrity endorsements.

Fundamental Analysis

Analyzing GUESS’ financial health starts with its revenue for the last quarter, which stands at $645M. This represents a minor decrease of 2.05% compared to the previous quarter, signaling a potential stall in growth momentum, but not an immediate red flag. Conversely, the increase of 2.43% compared to the same quarter last year infers an overarching positive year-over-year trend. The net income is an impressive figure, at $56M, boosting 42.70% from the preceding quarter and remarkably soaring by 155.10% year over year, illustrating substantial profit growth. However, EBITDA of $49M marks a decrease of 24.84% quarter over quarter, though it shows a 17.57% increase year over year, which hints at some operating challenges in the recent months despite annual growth. The current P/E ratio at 11.74 suggests potential market undervaluation, potentially making it an attractive investment to value-oriented investors.

Technical Analysis

The technical indicators paint an optimistic picture for GUESS. Today's stock price of $33.40 has seen a robust jump of 31.81% over the past month and an even more impressive 77.38% compared to the previous year. This marks a bullish trend for GUESS stock. The SMA10 is currently at $30.06, above its prior mark, hinting at continued positive momentum. Despite this, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) of 52.6 is in a neutral range, suggesting that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, offering a balanced entry point for potential investors.

Alternative Data Analysis

Upon examining alternative data, some caution is encouraged. Open job positions are down by 6% in recent months, which may be a sign of cost-cutting measures. Similarly, there is concern with customer acquisition and engagement metrics. Website visitors at 1.7M are down 46%, and mobile app downloads per day are down to just 27, plummeting by 86%, both indicative of a potential decline in customer interest and market share. Social media followings, with 8.7M on Instagram and 390,000 on Twitter, have remained static, which could be viewed as a lost opportunity to engage and expand the customer base in a digital age where social media presence is key.

Conclusion and Recommendation

In conclusion, GUESS presents a mixed bag of indicators. While fundamental and technical analysis aspects reveal a healthy, appreciating stock with a potentially undervalued P/E ratio, the alternative data points to issues in customer acquisition and market presence. Based on the current financials and positive stock price trend, GUESS could be a good investment for those focused on value and growth potential. However, investors should keep a close eye on alternative metrics and reconsider their position if the trends in customer interest do not reverse. Prospective investors may consider a cautious entry with a readiness to pivot should the pattern of customer engagement continue to fall.

The analytics provided are estimates and not a substitute for professional advice. All investments involve risks, including possible capital loss.
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