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Progressive - AI Stock Analysis

Analysis generated June 4, 2025

Progressive Corporation is one of the largest providers of car insurance in the United States. The company was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield Village, Ohio. Progressive is known for its innovative approach to insurance and has become a household name through its extensive marketing campaigns. In addition to auto insurance, Progressive offers a range of other insurance products, including motorcycle, boat, RV, and commercial auto insurance. The company operates through three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. Progressive has a strong reputation for its use of technology and data analytics to drive its operations and customer service.

Fundamental Analysis

Revenue for the last quarter was $20.4 billion. This is an increase of 0.70% compared to the quarter before it, which is a positive sign of growth. Compared to the same quarter last year, there is an increase of 18.40%, suggesting positive year-over-year growth. This indicates a strong and growing revenue stream which is crucial for the overall financial health of the company.

Net income for the last quarter was $2.57 billion. This is an increase of 8.93% compared to the quarter before it, which is a positive sign of growth. Compared to the same quarter last year, there is an increase of 10.11%, suggesting positive year-over-year growth. This signifies that the company is not only generating more revenue but also improving its profitability.

EBITDA for the last quarter was $0. This represents a decrease of 100.00% compared to the quarter before it, indicating a need for concern. Compared to the same quarter last year, there is a decrease of 100.00%, which may be a cause for concern. The EBITDA figure suggests that there may be underlying issues impacting the company’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

The current P/E ratio is 19.36. This appears to be within a normal range, neither particularly high nor low. This indicates that the stock is fairly valued compared to the earnings it is generating.

It is also important to note that in the last couple of months, there have been a couple of company insiders selling their stock, which is a potentially bearish signal. Insider selling can indicate a lack of confidence in the short-term prospects of the company from those who know it best.

Technical Analysis

Today’s stock price is $285.71. This is an increase of 1.03% compared to a month ago, indicating a positive short-term trend. Compared to a year ago, there is an increase of 37.18%, suggesting a positive long-term trend. The trend is bullish, showing investor confidence in the stock over both short and long periods.

The current SMA10 (Simple Moving Average over 10 days) is 282.69, which is higher than the previous SMA10 of 281.85. This indicates a potential upward trend in price movement, signifying that the stock is gaining momentum.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is 45.3, indicating a neutral condition. An RSI below 30 typically means a stock is oversold, while an RSI above 70 means it is overbought. A neutral RSI indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting stability in its current price.

Alternative Data Analysis

When looking at job postings and employee sentiment, Progressive has, according to data from the most popular job boards, 537 open positions. This number is up by 20% in the last couple of months, indicating a company that is looking to grow and expand. This is potentially a healthy sign.

The business outlook among employees at Progressive is neutral. This suggests that while there are hiring plans, there may not be overwhelmingly positive sentiment internally, which can impact productivity and morale.

In terms of customer acquisition, Progressive has an estimate of 35 million visitors to their webpage. The number of visitors is down by 9% in the last couple of months, a worrisome trend as this can indicate a loss in customers.

Progressive has an estimate of 13,000 users downloading their mobile apps every day, with no meaningful increase or decrease in downloads over the last couple of months. This shows stability but no significant growth in user base.

For customer engagement, Progressive has 76,000 followers on their Twitter page. The number of followers is down by 1% in the last couple of months, indicating a loss of interest in the company. This drop in engagement can be a red flag for their marketing and outreach efforts.

Finally, taking into consideration AltIndex’s AI score that tries to predict a company’s stock price based on fundamental, technical, and alternative data analysis, Progressive has an AI score of 56, which is a hold signal.

Conclusion and Recommendation

Based on the data provided, Progressive shows a mixed bag of indicators. The company is exhibiting strong revenue and net income growth both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, which is a positive sign. However, the complete drop in EBITDA is a significant concern that warrants further investigation.

The technical indicators suggest a bullish trend, with the stock price showing steady increases and a price momentum indicated by the SMA10. However, the RSI indicates a neutral condition, suggesting that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold.

Alternative data presents a more nuanced picture. While job postings indicate growth and expansion, declining webpage visitors and Twitter followers are concerning. Employee sentiment is neutral, which implies neither strong confidence nor major dissatisfaction.

Taking all these factors into account, it is recommended to adopt a hold position on Progressive’s stock. The positive revenue and net income trends are promising, but the concerns around EBITDA and declining customer engagement indicators suggest a cautious approach while waiting for more clarity on these issues.

Disclaimer: This AI stock analysis, generated by an experimental AI tool, is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Information is based on publicly available data and may not always be accurate or current.