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Harley-Davidson - AI Stock Analysis

Analysis generated June 10, 2024

Harley Davidson, established in 1903, is one of the world's most recognizable motorcycle manufacturers. Famous for its heavyweight motorcycles designed for cruising on highways, Harley has cultivated an iconic brand. While the company has faced challenges, including shifting demographics and market preferences, it continues to have a loyal customer base and strategic initiatives aimed at innovation and market expansion.

Fundamental Analysis

Harley Davidson's revenue for the last quarter was $1.73B. This represents a notable increase of 64.22% compared to the previous quarter, a positive sign that the company's strategic initiatives may be bringing in more sales. However, it is crucial to note that revenue has decreased by 3.30% compared to the same quarter last year, indicating potential seasonal performance issues or market challenges.

The net income for the last quarter was $235M. This is a staggering 810.34% increase compared to the quarter before, signaling an impressive recovery or successful cost-cutting measures. Nonetheless, compared to the same quarter last year, net income decreased by 22.74%, which might point to underlying issues not immediately evident from a quarterly jump.

EBITDA for the last quarter stood at $331M, up by an astonishing 1,878.70% from the previous quarter, reflecting a significant operational improvement. However, there is a 10.38% decrease in EBITDA when compared to the same quarter last year, a signal that the longer-term profitability might need attention.

The current Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio is 7.55. Seen as low, this may indicate potential undervaluation and a bullish outlook for investors looking for growth at a reasonable price.

Technical Analysis

Today's stock price for Harley Davidson is $34.37. This marks a decrease of 0.43% compared to a month ago, which might suggest short-term concerns. Nevertheless, compared to a year ago, the stock price has increased by 3.93%, showing a long-term positive trend despite recent fluctuations.

The trend is currently bearish. The SMA10 is at 35.02, lower than the previous SMA10 value of 35.15, indicating a potential downward trend in the price movement. The RSI stands at 46.5, suggesting a neutral condition. This may imply that the stock isn't oversold or overbought, allowing for further movement based on upcoming market or company-specific news.

Alternative Data Analysis

From the job postings and employee sentiment perspective, Harley Davidson has 165 open positions. This number has been stable over the past few months, indicating a stable workforce and no urgent hiring needs, which can be seen as a sign of stability.

Regarding customer acquisition, Harley Davidson has estimated 6.4 million visitors to its webpage, with a 10% increase in the last couple of months—a bullish sign indicating a growing interest that could translate into sales.

Customer engagement data show Harley Davidson has 5.7 million followers on Instagram and 490,000 followers on Twitter. Both numbers have remained relatively stable, showing persistent engagement though not necessarily growing significantly.

AltIndex's AI score, which predicts stock price based on a combination of fundamental, technical, and alternative data analysis, stands at 37. This score is a sell signal, suggesting caution to potential investors.

Conclusion and Recommendation

Based on the comprehensive analysis across fundamental, technical, and alternative data perspectives, Harley Davidson presents a mixed outlook. The strong quarterly improvements in revenue, net income, and EBITDA showcase potential short-term operational successes. However, the year-over-year declines and bearish technical indicators warrant cautious optimism. While low P/E ratio suggests potential undervaluation, the AI predictive score advises selling.

In conclusion, Harley Davidson might appeal to value investors encouraged by the low P/E ratio and short-term gains, but potential investors should closely monitor for signs of a long-term turnaround or strategic moves. A “Hold” recommendation seems prudent, balancing out the bullish and bearish indicators for now.

Disclaimer: This AI stock analysis, generated by an experimental AI tool, is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Information is based on publicly available data and may not always be accurate or current.